Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO
TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...LOWER MI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across eastern
Colorado to the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated damaging winds
remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the
Mid-Atlantic States.
...Eastern CO to the Lower MO Valley...
A trio of rather widely-spaced and recently weakening supercells are
ongoing across eastern CO to southwest KS. With pronounced MLCIN
downstream, that will further increase nocturnally, these
surface-based storms should diminish. Widespread elevated convection
is expected across northern KS into the Lower MO Valley overnight,
north of the southward-sagging cold front. Marginal severe hail will
be possible with initial updrafts before clustering in a largely
west/east-orientation. Modest effective bulk shear will limit the
overall threat.
...Lower MI/Lower OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States...
A generally weakening broken line of convection is ongoing from
western Lower MI to southern IL. The MI portion has shown some
recent uptick, closer to the MCV over central Lake MI. Adequate
deep-layer shear and the recent convective increase may foster a
sporadic damaging wind threat. But the downstream airmass of weak
lapse rates and MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z DTX/APX soundings,
will marginalize severe potential tonight.
Farther east, slow-moving thunderstorms will drift east and/or
weaken across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States tonight. But pockets
of moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support
localized damaging winds for a few more hours.
..Grams.. 07/17/2025
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