Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.
...Upper Midwest...
In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb
jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance
consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift
southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas
to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening
convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast
MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield
favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and
large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a
confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by
evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall
intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few
widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a
persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA
southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with
southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across
NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes
trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly
pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts.
...Southwest...
As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great
Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning
to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to
develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west
from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from
northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains,
isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated
severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ.
...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley...
A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a
portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding
(see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be
ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both
regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level
trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these
features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could
support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak
boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk.
...FL...
With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central
Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z
HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the
north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula.
Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small
hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be
possible from mid-afternoon to early evening.
..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025
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