Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains
today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North
Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
...20Z Update...
With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe
probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not
expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in
parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the
current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast
remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large
hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the
southern Plains.
..Wendt.. 06/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/
...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma...
A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional
outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail
and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging
winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and
overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern
Oklahoma.
Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the
central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward
across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air
mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near
dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir
of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest
Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term
details.
Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late
afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a
complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong
deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather
weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward
across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas,
likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs.
The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the
evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system
organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern
Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging
wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as
the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today,
with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by
afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of
VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization.
However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue
Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast.
Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for
supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes.
...Southeast...
Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind
damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal
portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through
mid-afternoon.
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