Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds,
and a tornado threat is anticipated. Isolated severe thunderstorms
are also possible extending into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and
over parts of southern New England. Damaging winds are the primary
concern in these areas.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Large-scale pattern will be slow to change through the day1 period
and severe thunderstorms are once again expected to develop across
the High Plains from eastern CO into the TX South Plains.
An elongated zone of upper ridging will continue to dominate the
southern U.S. from the Gulf States across southern TX into northeast
Mexico. While, negligible height changes are anticipated along the
northern periphery of this anticyclone, 40+kt west-southwesterly
500mb flow will extend as far south as 34N across NM into the TX
South Plains. Additionally, latest model guidance suggests
convective temperatures will once again be breached along the
western edge of a moist boundary layer that is entrenched across
this region. The primary concern will be the influence of early-day
convection and the prospect for rain-cooled boundary layer to shunt
an outflow beyond current expectations. At this time it appears a
pronounced boundary should extend across the TX South Plains into
eastern NM. Supercells are expected to evolve along this wind shift
then spread east, somewhat similar to the evolution Thursday
afternoon/evening. Strong buoyancy and shear favor very large hail,
and tornadoes are also a concern.
Farther north, water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough
digging southeast across the northern inter mountain region. This
feature will approach western CO by 07/00z and should advance into
western KS by the end of the period. Scattered supercells are
expected to develop within upslope flow across eastern CO ahead of
this feature, then spread southeast during the evening. Large hail
and tornadoes are possible early in the convective cycle, then a
larger complex of storms may materialize along the KS/OK border as a
LLJ focuses into this region late. If so, damaging wind threat
should increase overnight.
...TN/OH Valleys...
Early this morning a slow-moving cluster of storms was maturing
along the KS/OK border. This activity should gradually spread
east-southeast and will likely extend from southwest MO into eastern
OK at the start of the period. While the MCS may weaken during the
morning, renewed development along the leading edge of this activity
is possibly by early afternoon. Damaging winds are the main concern.
...Southern New England...
Seasonally high PW plume extends across the OH Valley into southern
New England early this morning. Modest air mass destabilization is
expected by mid day with an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE expected
to extend across southern New England by 18z. While deep layer shear
is not forecast to be that strong, adequate flow should exist for at
least some organization. Locally damaging winds are the primary
concern with storms that form along this instability axis.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 06/06/2025
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