Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into
the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Hail and
wind are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds may accompany
convection that develops from the lower Great Lakes into eastern
Texas.
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing that currently extends across much of the western
and central CONUS is forecast to remain in place throughout the day.
Western periphery of expansive subtropical ridging will remain over
the East Coast as well. Despite little change in the large-scale
upper pattern, multiple shortwave troughs progressing within these
larger features will contribute to convectively active day, with
thunderstorms anticipated from the southern Great Basin and
Southwest into the High Plains as well as from Lower MI into
east/southeast TX. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated from the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains, and the Southeast and
Florida as well.
...Southern Rockies into the southern High Plains...
The showers and isolated thunderstorm ongoing across the region are
expected to continue northeastward while weakening over the next
several hours. Much of this region is currently under a cool and dry
post-frontal regime, but southerly flow should return this
afternoon, contributing to quick airmass modification ahead of a
shortwave trough moving across the Southwest states. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of this shortwave from the Four
Corners eastward into the southern High Plains. The strongest storms
are expected during the late afternoon/early evening across
east-central NM, where the leading edge of the better low-level
moisture return interacts with storms moving off the higher terrain
of central NM ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
Enhanced mid-level flow will extend through this region as well,
resulting in environmental conditions supportive of supercells.
Large hail is favored initially, but high cloud bases and strong
outflow will likely result in a transition to a more linear/bowing
mode tonight. Despite nocturnal cooling and resultant low-level
stabilization, some strong gusts are still possible as these storms
continue into the western TX Panhandle this evening and tonight. A
low-probability tornado threat exists as these storms move towards
the TX Panhandle, where better low-level moisture and stronger
southeasterly winds are possible. However, the anticipated linear
storm mode and stabilizing nocturnal cooling should keep the tornado
threat low.
...Lower MI southward through the OH Valley and Ozarks into East
TX...
A weakening cold front currently extends from northern Lower MI into
central TX. Much of this front is expected to make modest
eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, before becoming
increasingly stationary tonight. A moist airmass precedes this
front, and afternoon dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s will
support moderate buoyancy and scattered to numerous thunderstorms.
Moderate 0-6 km (i.e. 30-35 kt) shear suggests a few robust storms
could evolve that would pose at least some risk for gusty winds.
Greatest risk for damaging winds will be during the afternoon when
buoyancy is maximized.
..Mosier/Broyles.. 06/04/2025
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