Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
from the upper Great Lakes into the central High Plains. Wind is the
primary risk, though hail is expected across portions of the High
Plains.
...Eastern KS/Western MO...
An overnight MCS is slowly weakening over central MO, with an
associated outflow boundary extending from eastern KS into
south-central MO. Strong heating will occur along and south of the
boundary, where several 12z CAM solutions indicate development of
afternoon thunderstorms. Given this scenario, have extended the
SLGT risk farther south into this region. Locally damaging wind
gusts would be the main concern. Refer to MCD #1506 for further
short-term details.
...WY/CO/SD/NE...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is digging into WY. As forcing
associated with this system overspreads the High Plains of WY,
high-based convection is expected. Thunderstorms will intensify as
they track into a moderately unstable air mass and weak but backed
low-level flow. Severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds may affect the Black Hills region and southward into the NE
Panhandle.
Storms will also develop southward into the foothills of CO this
afternoon and spread eastward. Winds and temperatures aloft are
less favorable for organized/severe storms that far south, but at
least isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are
possible.
...IA/WI...
Strong heating is occurring across much of WI today, where a moist
air mass will lead to moderate CAPE values. Thunderstorms will
develop by mid-afternoon along a remnant weak boundary across
central WI/northeast IA and spread northeastward through the day.
Vertical shear is not particularly strong, and overall convective
organization is expected to be low. Nevertheless, steep low-level
lapse rates and ample instability will promote strong downdrafts and
some hail in the strongest cells.
..Hart/Marsh.. 06/29/2025
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