Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
today from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the
Great Lakes.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/Great
Lakes...
At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the eastern
U.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into
the upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extending
southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate
destabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increases
along the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected to
initiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms are
expected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along and
near the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southern
Wisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However,
low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, which
could support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threat
occurring in the late afternoon and early evening.
...Southern and Central High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across much
of the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead
of the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along this
corridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat.
...Northern Maine...
At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northern
New England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface,
a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, where
surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70S
F. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convection
initiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence in
northern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer
shear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damage
threat during the early to mid afternoon.
..Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025
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