Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern High
Plains this afternoon and evening.
...High Plains...
Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably through
the upcoming day1 period as broad ridging will hold across the
southern Rockies while stronger westerlies persist near the
international border. This flow regime will ensure diffluent, albeit
weak, high-level flow across the central/southern Plains. A synoptic
front should remain draped across the northern Plains and this will
ensure easterly low-level flow across much of eastern MT.
While weak height rises are expected across the northern Rockies,
30-40kt 500mb southwesterly flow will extend across ID into southern
MT. As a result, wind profiles will remain favorably strong and
supportive of organized, rotating updrafts. Strongest boundary-layer
heating is forecast across northwestern MT/northern ID, and across
the central High Plains. However, adequate heating and topographic
influences favor thunderstorm initiation along the western edge of
the moist boundary layer, most likely by late afternoon, across
central MT into eastern WY. This activity will propagate
east-southeast across the High Plains through the evening hours.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.
Given the high-level diffluent flow aloft, and weaker steering
currents at lower latitudes, latest HREF guidance exhibits
substantial uncertainty in how/where potential convective clusters
could evolve. Ample buoyancy will exist for potentially severe
thunderstorms, but forecasting left over convective debris, and MCV
eddies, will likely prove too difficult to identify at this time to
warrant more than low severe probabilities south of I-70.
..Darrow/Supinie.. 06/14/2025
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