Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025
Valid 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail are
possible today across parts of Texas and the Upper Midwest.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the
northern Intermountain region/northern High Plains and the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed to account for recent convective trends. Latest surface
observations/RAP mesoanalysis shows fairly stable conditions across
the TX Coastal Plain in the wake of the MCS currently approaching
the Sabine River. However, lingering low-level moisture coupled with
increasing ascent/cooler temperatures aloft associated with the
approaching mid-level trough should promote thunderstorm development
across the TX Slight risk area late tonight into early Thursday
morning. Latest forecast guidance and soundings continue to hint at
the potential for strong/severe storms, so opted to maintain current
risk categories despite the limited severe threat in the short-term.
..Moore.. 06/11/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/
...Central/East Texas...
A complex/muddled mesoscale scenario exists regionally owing to a
decayed but lingering MCS across east/southeast Texas and multiple
lingering convectively enhanced MCVs in proximity to a
weak/slow-moving upper trough. Some supercell potential exists today
across East Texas and vicinity, with redevelopment expected later
today into tonight back west/southwest into central/south-central
Texas. Where air mass recovery/destabilization occurs, lingering
convectively enhanced flow field could support some supercells and
well-organized clusters capable of damaging winds, hail, and
possibly a tornado risk, pending a sustenance of moderately strong
winds in the lowest 2-3km AGL and possible outflow/
boundary-interaction factors.
...Upper Midwest including northern IA/southern MN/southern WI...
Have introduced a near-frontal-zone focused categorical Slight Risk
for an anticipated severe hail/wind risk expected later this
afternoon through early/mid-evening. This will be ahead of a
convectively-enhanced shortwave trough, with moderately strong
westerlies atop the west/east-oriented frontal zone. While low-level
moisture will not be robust by late-spring standards, steep lapse
rates and moderately strong buoyancy will support potentially severe
storms.
...Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A readily evident shortwave trough in late-morning water vapor
imagery over southeast Oregon/northern Nevada and southwest Idaho
will continue east-northeastward today, reaching the northern High
Plains late tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and mid-level
moisture will aid in the development of scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms, particularly from Idaho eastward across much of
Montana/Wyoming and northern Utah. The strongest storms will pose a
risk of severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail.
...Eastern Carolinas/southeast Virginia...
A moist/moderately unstable environment and modest-strength vertical
shear will support some potential for locally damaging winds and
hail until around sunset. See Mesoscale Discussion 1249 for
additional short-term details.
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