Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later
today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee
River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains,
northern Rockies, and south Florida.
...Central and eastern TX...
Thunderstorms that developed earlier over northern/central OK have
moved into southern OK/Red River vicinity at 13z, and have thus far
remained only loosely organized. Expectations in the short term are
for this area of rain/thunderstorms to continue south/southeast into
north-central and northeast TX, with perhaps an isolated stronger
storm posing a hail/wind threat. Redevelopment/re-intensification is
anticipated this afternoon as the residual outflow encounters
moderate/strong MLCAPE on the order of 2500-3000 J/kg. Northwesterly
deep-layer shear averaging 35-40 kts will be sufficient for
organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large to
very large hail and damaging gusts. A sustained storm interacting
with residual/modifying outflow may have some tornado potential in
the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear.
...TN to the Carolinas...
A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from eastern MO
southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest
low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold
temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will
allow for weak to moderate destabilization near and south of the
front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this
afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward
extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may
support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging
wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more
concentrated wind-damage threat, and latest hi-res guidance suggests
this may be most likely across central/eastern NC in association
with a weak surface low moving east along the front.
...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak
to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an
attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the
extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of
somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk
area.
...South FL...
Thunderstorms have redeveloped this morning along a low-level
confluence zone, with a few stronger updrafts occasionally
exhibiting low/mid-level rotation. There will be some potential for
modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms
spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early
afternoon. Westerly mid-level flow averaging 30 kts with a weakening
mid-level jet will support sufficient deep-layer shear for some
storm organization and the potential for isolated damaging gusts and
hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out this morning through early
afternoon with any stronger/semi-discrete storm. Please refer to
Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1060 for the latest short-term
thinking in this area.
...Eastern CO/NM...
Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening long
and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer
flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some
increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial
storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized
clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to
locally severe outflow winds.
...Southern CA into southern/central AZ...
A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of
southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread
the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation
will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger
heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will
be possible. However, confidence remains too low to introduce severe
probabilities at this time.
...Great Basin...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from
parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are expected to
remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however
localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime
through early evening.
..Bunting/Broyles.. 06/01/2025
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