Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe gusts will
be possible today across parts of eastern North Carolina.
Thunderstorms with potential for severe gusts and hail may also form
over eastern Florida. A marginal severe threat is also expected to
develop outside of the Slight Risk areas from parts of the Southeast
northeastward to southern Maryland.
...Southeast...
At mid-levels today, flow will remain west-southwesterly across the
southeastern U.S. At the surface, a very moist airmass will remain
from Florida to the central Gulf Coast, where surface dewpoints will
be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The greatest instability is
forecast across the eastern Florida Peninsula, where the models are
in generally good agreement that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range. As instability increases during the day,
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a sea breeze boundary in
eastern Florida. RAP forecast soundings near the boundary have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with some directional shear at
low-levels. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to peak in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should be enough for a wind-damage
threat with the stronger cells that form near the boundary. The
potential for severe gusts is expected to be concentrated in the mid
to late afternoon near max heating. A marginal and isolated severe
threat will also be possible westward across parts of the central
Gulf Coast states during the afternoon.
...Carolinas/Southeast Virginia/Southern Maryland...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move through the Ohio
Valley today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the
Atlantic Seaboard. A surface low will move northeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic, as a cold front moves across the Atlantic Coastal
Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F.
As surface heating takes place during the day, destabilization is
expected near the Atlantic coast in the eastern Carolinas. MLCAPE is
expected to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the early
afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 20Z in eastern North Carolina
have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with 0-3 km lapse rates in the 8
to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, mid-level lapse rates are forecast
to be steep around 700 mb. This environment could support supercells
with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat
should end by early evening, as the more favorable environment moves
offshore.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/09/2025
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