Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be
possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe
storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains,
Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf
Coast.
...Texas Coastal Plain...
Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the
southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located
across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range
from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately
unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the
moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak
across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the
afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow.
RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have
MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50
knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km.
This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop
during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts
will also be possible.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today,
as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern
Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass
will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely
support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP
forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear
near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km.
This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C
to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also
be possible.
...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be
ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf
east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This
convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving
eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the
afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas
near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western
Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a
marginal potential for severe gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025
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