Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KS
INTO OK...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon
into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma to the Red
River.
...Central/southern Plains...
A compact mid/upper-level shortwave trough will dig
south-southeastward from the Dakotas towards the ArkLaTex region
through the forecast period. In conjunction with this system, a weak
cold front will move southward from KS into OK, with one or more
weak surface waves developing along the front through the day.
Modest low-level moisture transport combined with evapotranspiration
will aid in dewpoints rising to near/above 60 F in advance of the
front, resulting in moderate diurnal destabilization. Isolated storm
development will be possible near the front across southern
KS/northern OK by late afternoon, with some increase in storm
coverage possible into the evening across OK.
Favorable deep-layer shear and long hodographs will support
supercells capable of large hail and localized severe gusts with
initial development. Low-level flow/shear will not be particularly
strong, but a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
stronger/sustained supercell. Some clustering will be possible with
time, which could spread some severe threat into parts of north TX
later tonight.
...Eastern KY/TN into the Mid Atlantic...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of
the eastern CONUS today. A mid/upper-level speed maximum will move
through the base of the trough across NC/VA during the afternoon and
early evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, cold temperatures
aloft will support sufficient buoyancy for widely scattered storm
development. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will be possible with
the strongest storms. Any clustering of storms could result in more
concentrated areas of wind-damage potential, but confidence is
currently too low to include greater severe probabilities.
...Central/south FL...
Convection will likely be ongoing across the central FL Peninsula at
the start of the period. This convection will spread southward
through the day, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest
storm organization and some potential for gusty/damaging winds, and
perhaps small to near-severe hail. Most guidance suggests
redevelopment of deep convection across the peninsula later tonight,
with sufficient deep-layer shear remaining in place for a few
stronger storms.
...CO/NM...
Similar to Friday, a couple strong storms could develop from
south-central/southeast CO into northeast NM, within a modestly
moist and unstable environment. While confidence in more than a very
isolated severe threat is low at this time, severe probabilities may
need to be considered if trends support greater coverage of severe
potential into the late afternoon and evening.
..Dean/Wendt.. 05/31/2025
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