Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening
from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A
more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast
and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin.
...Synopsis...
A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across
parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a
broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A
slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from
parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One
frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward
southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually
consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the
front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS
Valley.
For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig
southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold
front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in
conjunction with this system.
...Parts of the East...
The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal
region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina
Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England,
where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently
expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance
of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately
buoyant environment.
Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the
northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave
and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the
region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and
isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential.
Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the
afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of
damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms.
Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in
the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and
FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling
temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough,
and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment
of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the
afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater
severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability
in advance of the cold front.
...Parts of NV into OR/ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the
northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent
and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will
generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and
small to near-severe hail.
...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region...
Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and
evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX.
Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization
across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around
500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer
shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability
materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or
two with some hail potential could evolve with time.
...Deep South TX...
Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small
part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it
is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will
have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this
morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.
..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025
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