Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to spread
across the central High Plains into the southern Plains later
tonight. Large hail and severe wind gusts remain the main threats.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding severe tonight continue. Over the last
few hours, several supercells have matured over the central High
Plains, from the NE Panhandle into eastern CO. This activity is
gradually growing upscale and should propagate south-southeast along
an instability gradient, currently draped from eastern CO-western
KS-northern OK. Latest 1km VAD winds exhibit roughly 25kt southerly
flow across the southern Plains into southwest KS. This should
contribute to the High-Plains convection spreading/developing
downstream along the nose of the LLJ. With time, LLJ should focus
more across the southern Plains, and this is where convection should
ultimately concentrate after midnight. Large hail remains the
primary risk with supercells, though some concern for damaging winds
exists, especially if an MCS can mature across northern OK
overnight.
..Darrow.. 05/24/2025
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