Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening across
the southern Plains, especially within the Low Rolling Plains into
parts of North Texas. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
hazards, with a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail possible.
...20Z Update...
The cluster of supercells that move through south-central Oklahoma
and North Texas earlier have diminished in intensity. In their wake
an outflow boundary has drifted southwestward into Northwest Texas
and parts of the Low Rolling Plains. Here, thunderstorms have
recently developed. Large buoyancy and moderate effective shear will
continue to support large/very large hail with the strongest storms.
Additional towering cumulus are developing in the South Plains along
the surface trough/dryline. This activity should intensify this
afternoon and tend to move east/southeast along the outflow
boundary. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Strong
mixing has been noted in central Texas where dewpoints have fallen
into the low 50s F in some places. As this air moves toward
convection farther north, storms may have some tendency to become
more outflow dominant. Should a more organized cluster/MCS develop,
wind gusts of 75+ mph would be possible.
..Wendt.. 05/22/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025/
...Southern Plains including southern OK/northern Texas...
Initially elevated, scattered, upscale-growing storms have evolved
this morning across south-central Oklahoma. These storms will likely
persist south-southeastward along the baroclinic gradient,
potentially becoming increasingly surface based this afternoon.
Additional southwest-peripheral development is also anticipated
generally near the Red River as outflow/differential heating
interfaces with the synoptic boundary with an aggressively
destabilizing boundary layer, with upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE
plausible across far southwest Oklahoma into a broader part of
nearby north Texas.
Wind profiles will support supercells with the initial/renewed
development, with clusters otherwise persisting/evolving with the
ongoing Red River-vicinity storms and with anticipated additional
development later today across southwest Oklahoma into/across the
Low Rolling Plains of Texas. Very large hail is possible along with
damaging wind potential, and some tornado risk may exist as well,
although low-level shear/SRH will tend to remain modest overall.
...Southern/Eastern Florida...
Seasonally cool 500-mb temperatures (-8 to -10 deg C) and moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast equatorward of a
large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough over the East. Deep westerly
flow favors an east coast sea breeze, and this should be where
convection focuses as temperatures warm through the upper 80s and
lower 90s. Localized severe gusts and large hail are the primary
threats with this diurnally maximized convection.
...Coastal Mid-Atlantic States...
Sufficient buoyancy coincident with moderately strong wind profiles
may support isolated severe low-topped storms this afternoon through
around sunset in vicinity of a secondary frontal zone/triple point.
...Central High Plains...
The eastward-migrating mid-level trough over the northern Rockies
will favor southeasterly low-level upslope flow into the central
High Plains. Modest moisture coupled with strong heating will yield
250-750 J/kg SBCAPE by mid-afternoon east of the Front Range. While
storms should remain relatively isolated, elongated straight-line
hodographs will support east-southeastward moving storms within an
environment featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km).
Isolated large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts will be possible.
...Northern Idaho/southwest Montana/northwest Wyoming...
Some stronger to locally severe low-topped storms may occur later
today within a modestly moist/unstable environment ahead of the
amplifying shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern
Intermountain region.
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