Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the southern Plains this
afternoon and evening. Large hail is the main threat, along with
damaging winds. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail are
possible.
...Southern Plains...
Weak short-wave ridging will shift into the central High Plains
later today and mid-level heights are forecast to rise from the
southern Rockies into the northern Plains. As this occurs, synoptic
front currently draped across northern AR into northern OK will sag
south and settle into the TX South Plains/southern OK by mid-late
afternoon. This boundary will prove instrumental in robust
thunderstorm development as surface temperatures soar through the
upper 80s to lower 90s. While LLJ is not forecast to be that strong,
latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across
northwest TX into southwest OK by early evening. Convective
temperatures should be breached by 21z and scattered thunderstorms
are expected to evolve along the boundary, driven in large part by
diurnal heating. Any storms that mature within this steep lapse-rate
environment will move slowly south-southeast into an airmass
characterized by SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
around 40kt. Wind profiles favor supercells and hodographs suggest
very large hail is likely with the most robust updrafts. Locally
damaging winds are also likely given the expected thermodynamic
profiles. Scattered supercells/clusters will propagate into
northwest/north-central TX during the evening hours.
...Southern Florida...
Seasonally cool/steep mid-level lapse rates will be noted across the
southern Peninsula today. Deep westerly flow favors an east coast
sea breeze, and this should be where convection focuses as readings
breach convective temperatures. Gusty winds and some risk for hail
are the primary threats with this diurnally driven convection.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 05/22/2025
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