Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this
afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern
Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.
...20z Update...
Adjustments were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook to the
Slight across the Southeast to account for latest trends in radar
and observations. A couple of broken line segments of thunderstorms
continue to pose a risk for damaging wind in these regions.
Elsewhere, the higher risk area across the central and southern
Plains continues to be where potential for all hazards will be
possible. The current plume of mid-level cloud cover extending from
central to eastern OK into southern KS continues to pose some
uncertainty on how the situation will unfold this afternoon.
Clearing across southwestern OK has allowed for heating and the
agitated cu field continues on visible satellite imagery. Further
into Kansas, clouds are more persistent but there is a narrow region
of warming from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Dodge City. CAM guidance
is spread on exactly how storms will evolve this afternoon, but it
appears supercell development is likely across the dryline in
western Oklahoma and Kansas this afternoon. Should a discrete mode
maintain, very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. As the
afternoon/evening progresses, the low level jet will increase
through time with moisture advection increasing into central
Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Should supercells be maintained, this
could pose a risk for a strong tornado.
See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 05/18/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025/
...KS/OK...
A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a
band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM
into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into
western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air
mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong
southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector
will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show
diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today.
The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity
will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central
KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with
forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote
a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending
slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the
dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However,
any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards.
...Western North TX...
Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be
over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures
in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These
storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the
evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible.
...MS/AL/GA...
A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon
from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs
are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries
present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development
this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a
risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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