Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening, and
far western Iowa and southwest Minnesota overnight. A few strong to
severe storms may occur from parts of the southern Appalachians to
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Surface low pressure will deepen in the vicinity of the CO/KS/NE
border today in response to the approach of an upper-level trough,
as an associated surface cold front moves slowly east across the
central/northern Plains. Low-level moisture advection and steep
mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km) will result in
MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg across central NE, with weaker instability
northward across the central Dakotas. Thunderstorm development is
expected by late afternoon near the front across the Dakotas and
central/northern NE, with severe hail and wind the primary risks.
Damaging winds will become more likely as one or two clusters
ultimately evolve over central/northern NE and move towards
southeast SD/southwest MN and far northwest IA during the late
evening and overnight.
Across southwest/central NE, more discrete supercell structures will
be possible with storms developing closer to the surface low/dryline
intersection, with large to very large hail possible. A 5 percent
tornado probability has been introduced across portions of central
NE, where a short-duration window may exist for a couple of
tornadoes this evening with any semi-discrete storm or small cluster
in the presence of increasing low-level shear. Expected upscale
growth should limit the time frame for supercell tornado potential.
...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...
Weak to moderate instability will develop from the southern
Appalachians to the Carolinas Wednesday. As a mid-level shortwave
trough overspreads the region, scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop. Sufficient shear of 25 to 30 knots will support some
storm organization including potential for transient supercell
structures. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates should support the
potential for large hail and perhaps isolated damaging wind gusts.
..Bunting/Dean.. 05/14/2025
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