Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a damaging wind and tornado risk may
occur across parts of the Southeast, including northern Florida,
southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Other thunderstorms with
strong winds will be possible across the northern Rockies this
afternoon and evening.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made
with this update. The greatest tornado risk has generally shifted
northward into southeast AL and southwest GA -- where low-level SRH
is maximized along the warm front. Reference Tornado Watch #244 and
MCD #760 for more details. An additional uptick in tornado potential
is possible farther south into the FL Panhandle late in the forecast
period, as the low-level jet re-strengthens over the eastern Gulf.
The 5-percent tornado probabilities have been maintained here for
this scenario.
..Weinman.. 05/10/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025/
...Southeast including FL and far southeast AL/southern GA...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the MOB vicinity, with a
warm front extending eastward along the FL/AL border into far
southwest GA and a cold front extending southward into the central
Gulf. Thunderstorms have developed along and just ahead of this
front, amid modest low-level convergence. A belt of enhanced
southerly low-level flow exists across this warm sector, which has
contributed to transient low-level mesocyclone intensification. This
belt of enhanced low-level flow is expected to persist throughout
the afternoon, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of greater
severe storm potential from the central FL Peninsula into far
southeast AL and far southwest GA. This area was discussed in
recently issued MCD #0758, which mentioned the storms are forecast
to gradually increase in coverage and intensity during the day, and
that a few of these storms may produce severe weather including
brief tornadoes. Tornado Watch #244 was also recently issued to
cover this severe-weather potential.
Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase along and north
of the warm front from central AL into central GA during the
afternoon and evening. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but
buoyancy will be weak and the general expectation is for storms to
remain sub-severe. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is also expected
across the FL Peninsula this afternoon amid modest low-level
confluence and strong heating. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downbursts and isolated
instances of hail are still possible.
...Montana/Idaho...
Strong heating is anticipated across the northern Rockies/northern
High Plains, resulting in a deeply mixed boundary layer by the mid
to late afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow and resulting
orographic ascent is expected to result in thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain. Very steep low-level lapse rates and
relatively dry sub-cloud layers will promote efficient evaporative
cooling with the stronger cores as storms mature as they move
northeast. A couple of clusters are possible with severe outflow.
This activity will likely spread into northern/northeast Montana
during the evening.
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