Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR
...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the
northern Gulf Coast.
...Discussion...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over
North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will
move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving
mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early
Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over
the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near
Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level
warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an
environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the
shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle.
Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some
enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a
brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary
threat.
Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and
the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening
thunderstorm activity this evening.
..Smith.. 05/10/2025
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