Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...AND FROM THE TX/OK PAHANDLES EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX....
...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.
...OH Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave
trough moving across parts of MO/IL. Forcing ahead of this trough
will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and
central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the
afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings show deep and
moderately strong southwest flow aloft. This coupled with
sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Activity is expected to
spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening.
...Central TX...
A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into
central TX this morning. Strong heating and ample moisture
along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000
J/kg by late afternoon. Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least
isolated intense convection forming in this corridor. Those storms
that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds.
Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern
Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening.
...TX Panhandle into OK...
A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the
Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms
over southeast CO this afternoon. This activity will track
southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over
the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are
expected. Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large
hail and damaging winds. By late tonight, other storms are expected
to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a
risk of large hail.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/01/2025
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