Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While organized severe storms are unlikely, isolated strong storms
may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys through early
evening, and perhaps also across southeast Montana to the Black
Hills.
...20z Update...
No changes in forecast reasoning since the prior Outlook. The cold
front will continue to spread south-southeastward across southern
Florida, with thunderstorms increasingly relegated to the far
southeast part of the Peninsula, Keys, and Florida Straits.
..Guyer.. 04/08/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/
...South Florida/Keys...
A cold front will continue to progress southeastward and move
offshore by evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms
continuing this afternoon ahead of it. While a couple of stronger
storms could occur this afternoon through early evening, poor
mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should mitigate
overall storm strength. A positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach the region later tonight. But with the front having
progressed offshore, thunderstorm potential (including any severe
risk) over land should remain very low.
...North-central High Plains..
A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the northern Rockies
into the southern Canadian Prairies, while moderate mid-level flow
expands eastward from the Pacific Northwest into the northern High
Plains. Widely scattered high-based convection is possible during
the afternoon and evening from southeast Montana/northern Wyoming to
the Black Hills as modest large-scale ascent influences areas that
have destabilized amid boundary-layer heating. Weak buoyancy should
temper overall updraft strength, but a few instances of
stronger/gusty thunderstorm winds may occur.
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