Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI
DELTA INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA/GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern
Virginia.
...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt trough will make modest eastward progress from the
southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. A mid-level
jet will intensify from the Mid-South into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will be
situated in Mississippi Delta arcing northeastward into the
southern/central Appalachians and though the DelMarVa. The front
will continue its southeastward progress through the period. A moist
airmass will be in place ahead of the front, particularly in the
Southeast where dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F appear
probable.
...Southeast...
A line of convection is expected to be ongoing early Sunday morning
in eastern Mississippi and perhaps parts of western Alabama. Though
the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient
mid-level flow parallel to the boundary should maintain convective
organization. Primarily linear convection with perhaps embedded
supercells will be capable of wind damage and tornadoes. 850 mb
winds are expected to translate east along/ahead of the convective
line, maintaining a risk for tornadoes through the afternoon. It is
possible a corridor of greater wind/tornado potential could develop,
conditional on where surface heating can occur. Portions of
southern/southeast Alabama into far west-central/southwest Georgia
are areas that could remain relatively cloud free. Overall, the
severe threat should be somewhat limited by poor mid-level lapse
rates/warm air aloft as well as the potential for cloud cover.
...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont...
Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the
morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given
the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms
may produce wind damage.
..Wendt/Supinie.. 04/06/2025
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