Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas
across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.
The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds
will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast
Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense
tornadoes.
...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight...
An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly
eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward
over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be
enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the
upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to
move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak
wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR
this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air
at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports
northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon.
Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place
with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates
of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by
early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both
along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm
development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent
will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated
storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR
into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical
shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with
substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or
above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in
AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist
environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of
producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this
evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to
baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the
supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the
baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be
capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts.
...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight...
Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated
thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards
Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm
environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very
large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging
winds to the surface.
..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/04/2025
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