Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple clusters of severe storms are expected this evening into
overnight across parts of the Southern Plains. Large to very large
hail, severe gusts, and a couple tornadoes are all possible.
Clusters of storms with locally damaging wind also remain possible
across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
An intense storm cluster with embedded supercells has developed
across western north TX this evening. Large to very large hail and
at least localized significant wind gusts will be possible with this
cluster as it moves across north TX and southern OK. The downstream
environment is also becoming increasingly favorable to tornadoes in
the vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary, with enlarging low-level
hodographs, rich low-level moisture, and moderate to strong
instability in place. The storm mode may remain rather complex with
additional upscale growth possible, but any persistent embedded
supercells will pose a tornado threat through the evening. Later
tonight, this complex may move into parts of eastern OK and the
Ozarks, with continued severe potential into the overnight hours.
Renewed strong to severe storm development is expected later tonight
in the southwest TX vicinity, aided by an approaching
mid/upper-level trough and strengthening low-level jet. The
environment will remain favorable for supercells, and an additional
cluster may evolve and move east-northeastward toward north TX and
southern OK overnight. Large to very large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible with the late night storms, along with some
tornado potential with any supercells that are able to remain
surface-based near the effective cold front and outflow boundary.
...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Much of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast has stabilized
in the wake of multiple severe-wind producing MCSs. However, pockets
of locally moderate buoyancy from parts of KY/OH, and also into
parts of northern NY. A few strong clusters and/or marginal
supercells remain possible through the evening, with a threat of
locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado.
..Dean.. 04/30/2025
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