Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly
during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are
expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts
of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature
cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes
and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative
tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across
AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through
its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains.
Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a
cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK
where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues
westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through
central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across
eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough,
ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold
front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys,
and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front
will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its
position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow
throughout the day.
Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the
eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the
southern Plains near the stalled boundary.
...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes...
Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It
seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts
with the destabilizing air mass over the region.
Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will
be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb
layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell
and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also
accompany any persistent supercell structures.
...West TX into the Ozarks...
Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the
Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to
evolve, tracking northeastward.
Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both
along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and
along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong
buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west
TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level
convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the
primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm
proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to
significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential
may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may
overlap.
..15_ows.. 04/29/2025
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