Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across
parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also
across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will
move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel
cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the
Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the
Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a
trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.
...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex...
Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of
the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains
vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related
outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests
that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move
eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will
move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and
beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period.
Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the
vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the
eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich
low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by
afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts
of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of
low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the
vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe
threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a
well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level
moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
eastward in response to this potential scenario.
Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm
development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary
somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal
regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms
across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger
large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be
possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail,
strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities
may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell
coverage across part of this region.
...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon
across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely
scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and
deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level
shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during
the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and
destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging
wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest
storms.
..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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