Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over the
Texas South Plains and vicinity during the late afternoon and
evening. Large hail and localized wind damage appears likely.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will drop south off the West Coast, with moderate
southwest winds aloft from CA into the Great Basin and Rockies. To
the east, height rises will occur over the Plains, with 500 mb
temperatures about 2 C warmer than on Thursday. East of there, a
weak midlevel trough will proceed across the MS/OH/TN Valleys,
supporting scattered daytime thunderstorms from Lake Erie to MS.
At the surface, high pressure will build south into the northern and
central Plains, with a quasi-stationary front near the latitude of
the Red River at 00Z. South of this boundary, a moist and unstable
air mass will remain, and backed low-level winds will maintain
westward moisture transport into the heated high Plains. The result
will likely be cluster of slow-moving severe storms over a
relatively concentrated area over West Texas.
...Extreme eastern NM...West TX...southwest OK...
Linger storms may be ongoing over parts of KS and OK early in the
day, but a weakening trend is anticipated as the driving warm
advection out of the southwest dwindles. Then, strong heating will
occur over much of West TX and NM, with the large-scale boundary
roughly along I-40. Easterly surface winds will maintain 60s F
dewpoints, and by late afternoon, MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is
forecast. Storms are likely to develop both along this boundary, and
farther west near the NM/TX border. Although midlevel winds will be
a bit weaker than on Thursday, slow-moving storms, including
isolated supercells, are expected. Localized significant hail,
damaging outflows, and a brief tornado will all be possible through
early evening. Cluster of storms with heavy rain and strong gusts
may persist overnight into portions of northwest TX as well.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 04/25/2025
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