Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado
into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large
hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.
...Synopsis...
Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak
today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast,
and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances
associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby
environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels,
the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies
across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising
heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada.
At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high
will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern
Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong
instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly
from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a
surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south.
...Central and southern Plains...
MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today
south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and
West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or
northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries
that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the
day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX
during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here,
widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with
primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well
over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with
steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS
border during the evening.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025
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