Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will spread across the mid Mississippi Valley
into western Tennessee this evening. A few tornadoes remain
possible, along with the threat of wind and perhaps some hail.
...01z Update...
Strong negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across
eastern KS/western MO early this evening. This feature is
contributing to an elongated band of convection that currently arcs
from western IL-southeast MO-central AR-southeast TX, coincident
with the primary synoptic cold front surging east. Over the last few
hours the most concentrated corridor of supercells has shifted into
eastern AR where no less than four distinct supercells are spreading
across western portions of ww156. Latest model guidance suggests the
LLJ will increase across northern MS/western TN/KY later this
evening. There is some concern this activity may spread a bit
farther downstream than depicted in earlier day1 convective outlook.
Forecast sounding for MEM at 06z exhibits more than adequate SBCAPE
for robust updrafts, and strong shear is favorable for the
maintenance of these storms. Will adjust the SLGT/MRGL Risks east to
account for this scenario.
..Darrow.. 04/21/2025
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