Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern
Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight.
Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially
across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated.
...01z Update...
Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow
from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the
Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures
across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit
farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH
persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has
struggled to develop.
1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later
this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the
cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near
SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is
notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data
suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the
eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should
gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours.
Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms
Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that
evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western
IN.
..Darrow.. 04/19/2025
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