Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail,
are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern
and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains today,
as a surface low develops across northern Nebraska. In the wake of
the ridge, moisture advection will increase across the southern and
central Plains from late afternoon into the evening. By
00Z/Thursday, a moist axis will be located from central Oklahoma
into central Kansas where surface dewpoints are forecast to be
mostly in the 50s F. Early this evening, a 40 to 50 knot low-level
jet is forecast to rapidly develop from western Oklahoma into
west-central Kansas. Lift associated with the jet and low-level
convergence near the dryline may be enough for isolated convective
initiation. If storms can initiate and grow upscale, then isolated
large hail and marginally severe gusts will be possible, aided by
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. During the mid to late evening, the
potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of producing hail will
likely develop eastward across parts of east-central Kansas and
southeast Nebraska. As warm advection increases overnight, the hail
threat may eventually affect parts of western Missouri and southwest
Nebraska.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/16/2025
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