Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind
gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the
eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe
storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also
from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
An intense upper trough, initially over the MS Valley this morning,
and characterized by a 500 mb jet streak of 90+ kt, will pivot east
across the eastern U.S. through the period. Through the morning and
early afternoon hours, a southerly low level jet greater than 60 kt
will overspread the Southeast coastal vicinity into the Mid-Atlantic
and lower Great Lakes regions. At the surface, strong warm advection
will transport 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of an
eastward-progressing cold front from FL into southeast GA and as far
north as southeast VA. Moisture will become more modest with
northward extent into eastern OH/PA/western NY.
The net result will be a modestly unstable airmass in the presence
of intense deep-layer flow supporting a large area of strong to
severe/damaging wind potential. Tornado potential also is possible,
with greater potential expected from the Carolinas into southeast VA
where low-level moisture will be greater.
...VA south to north FL...
A QLCS is expected to be ongoing this morning, extending from
western WV/VA and the western Carolinas into southeast GA and north
FL. Diurnal heating will be limited, and low-level lapse rates will
remain poor. This will pose some challenge for purely surface-based
convection. Nevertheless, very strong large-scale ascent amid
intense wind profiles will likely be sufficient for swaths of
damaging gusts. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate the
presence of midlevel dry air just ahead of the eastward-advancing
QLCS across the Carolinas and VA. This could further aid in some
downward transport of stronger winds. Where 60s F dewpoints are
achieved, QLCS tornadoes also will be possible, especially if backed
low-level flow can be maintained to further enhance low-level SRH.
While instability will likely be greater with southward extent,
large-scale ascent will be lifting north of the GA/FL vicinity.
Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with
modest instability, this should result in some continued organized
convection capable of strong to severe gusts.
...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Further north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler
boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F.
However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse
rates and foster MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg. Additionally, closer
to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective
shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped supercells
and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail
and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this
afternoon.
..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/05/2025
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