Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Intensifying thunderstorm development across parts of the southern
Great Plains this evening will pose a risk for large hail, damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, while spreading toward
the lower Missouri Valley, Ozark Plateau and Ark-La-Tex vicinity
overnight.
...01Z Update...
A notable cold front continues to nose southward through the central
Great Plains, and is in the process of overtaking the dryline across
eastern Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. This is occurring to the
southwest of a sub-1000 mb surface low, which probably will not
undergo much further deepening as it migrates across northwestern
Missouri into eastern Iowa by late tonight, based on model output.
Southerly return flow within the warm sector continues to moisten
beneath a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air emerging from the
high plains, and this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the
order of 1000-2000+ J/kg.
Large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a short wave trough
is now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity, and
is forecast to gradually pivot northeastward toward the lower
Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau vicinity through late tonight.
Thunderstorm activity is beginning to initiate along the cold front
across eastern Kansas into western Oklahoma and central Texas and,
as initially substantive mid-level inhibition continues to erode, a
further increase in coverage and intensity is likely this evening
into the overnight hours.
Downstream of the exit region of an intensifying, cyclonic mid-level
jet core (to 70+ kt around 500 mb), forcing for ascent still appears
to offer the best potential for an upscale growing and organizing
convective system. This still appears most probable across parts of
north central Oklahoma through southwestern and central Missouri,
and may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts overnight, if it does not become undercut by the southeastward
advancing cold front.
..Kerr.. 03/30/2025
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