Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...NORTHEASTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development is still possible this evening across parts of the Upper
Midwest into central Great Plains.
...01Z Update...
In the wake of southern mid- to subtropical latitude mid-level
troughing slowly progressing east-northeast of the southeastern
Great Plains/northwestern Gulf Basin vicinity, and downstream of
low-amplitude mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude
Pacific, a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air has overspread a
corridor from the southern high plains through the Upper Midwest.
Beneath this regime, low-level moisture return remains modest,
particularly to the north of the southern Great Plains Red River
Valley.
...Great Plains into Great Lakes
Due to the pronounced mid-level inhibition, thunderstorm development
through much of the day remained confined to areas well to the north
of a sharp quasi-stationary frontal zone across the Upper
Mississippi Valley into lower Great Lakes region. However,
thunderstorm activity has recently initiated, and continues to
increase in coverage, in closer proximity to the front, across parts
of southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. While some of this
has initiated in the more strongly heated boundary-layer to the
south of the front, this is likely to be either fairly quickly
become undercut by the front, where the front is beginning to
advance southward, or become focused in forcing associated with
low-level warm to the immediate north of the front, farther east.
CAPE for the elevated moist parcels might be as high as 500-1000
J/kg, which may continue to support a risk for small to marginally
severe hail in stronger storms through this evening.
Southwestward into the Great Plains, latest satellite imagery
suggest that there still may be a window of opportunity for
thunderstorm initiation within the pre-frontal surface troughing
across parts of northeastern through south central Nebraska early
this evening. Given the warm/dry sub-cloud air, a few strong gusts
may accompany this activity before boundary-layer cooling diminishes
this potential later this evening.
..Kerr.. 03/29/2025
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