Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A low probability tornado/wind threat is forecast through this
evening across parts of coastal Texas into Louisiana. Isolated
severe hail and wind is also possible this evening/tonight from
Nebraska into portions of the Upper Midwest.
...Coastal Texas into Louisiana...
A convective cluster advanced eastward and offshore from deep south
TX earlier this morning. In the wake of this activity, a remnant MCV
should continue northeastward along/near the TX Coast today. With
considerable convective overturning having already occurred, it
remains unclear how much destabilization will occur along/behind the
MCV across deep south TX through the afternoon. A better chance for
modest surface-based instability to develop should exist across
parts of the upper TX Coast into LA this afternoon. With modestly
enhanced low-level winds veering with height across this area in
association with the MCV, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to
support a couple of tornadoes with any cells or clusters that can
develop this afternoon. An isolated damaging wind threat should also
exist with this activity as it spreads into parts of LA early this
evening, before eventually weakening with the loss of daytime
heating. Poor mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall
thermodynamic environment, and current expectations are for the
severe threat to remain fairly isolated/marginal.
...Nebraska into the Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will be gradually suppressed today as a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moves eastward across the northern/central Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming northward along/south of a sharpening
warm front across MN/WI, and east of a cold front that will develop
southward across parts of the northern/central Plains by this
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop by mid to
late evening along/near both fronts as low-level warm advection
strengthens, from central NE northeastward into southern MN and
central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in the development
of moderate MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear appears marginally
supportive of organized convection. Any sustained thunderstorms
could produce isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This activity
will likely be elevated with eastward extent into the Upper Midwest
through the evening and overnight, with a continued hail threat.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/28/2025
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