Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia.
...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle...
A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues
east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast
Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity.
Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in
observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78
mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of
the apex of the bowing complex.
This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe
wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may
increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective
outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some
severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly
in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast.
...South-central Texas...
As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward
later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could
support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of
the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show
steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging
gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears
unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away
from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to
be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025
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