Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions
of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of
AL. A tornado or two will also be possible.
...Synopsis...
Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over
the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending
south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a
diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low
over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward
tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a
warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from
central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN
Valley.
...ArkLaMiss and western AL...
Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central
and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt
bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe
MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in
diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This
should continue for another couple of hours before these storms
gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that
complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually
move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight.
While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually
intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across
northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show
around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs
with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a
tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant
supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve.
...Central and east TX...
Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures,
steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends
southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine
Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should
continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this
evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as
scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging
front.
...TN/KY...
Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley,
scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY
into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should
continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the
southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger,
but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe
intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the
intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts,
hail and a tornado or two.
..Lyons.. 03/24/2025
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