Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no
changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with
isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong
gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads
portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued
diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in
downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe
wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time.
..Weinman.. 03/20/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/
...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...
Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will
allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this
afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest,
with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a
narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon
observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as
well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel
southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification
will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted,
generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few
lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon
along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb,
where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast
soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very
poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe
thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities.
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