Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North
Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large
hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are
the primary hazards.
...OK/TX...
A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east
from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before
weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday
morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of
northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the
left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the
southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep
southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak.
As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from
southwest KS.
At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM
through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong
southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of
Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast
guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over
the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture
may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across
the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this
precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger
diurnal heating.
Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings
across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells
possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to
be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting
MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel
winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized
updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values
approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any
stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes.
Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures
aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail
may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also
be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK.
The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and
time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture.
Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of
tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle
into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been
introduced.
..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025
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