Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general
thunderstorms are the primary risk.
...01z Update...
Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with
earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is
spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that
currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a
brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this
evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe
probabilities.
Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the
northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the
international border into southern NM by the end of the period,
increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse
rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread
across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight.
Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven
severe gusts are not anticipated.
..Darrow.. 03/14/2025
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