Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into
southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early
evening.
...Southeast...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning
will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the
TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow
is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the
Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21
C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered
daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak
destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL
Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon,
as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through.
Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur
over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL
Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the
mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters
to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for
both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early
evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on
convective development and evolution through 20Z.
...Southern Arizona...
A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an
upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem
with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt
mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international
border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust
could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However,
the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will
remain low.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025
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