LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex late this evening.
Large hail and severe gusts should be the primary hazards.
...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of east-central
Texas as of 00z. This activity has struggled to maintain intensity,
likely owing to dry mid-levels and surface inhibition. The mid-level
wave continues to move across this region with forcing for ascent
continuing over the next few hours, with potential for additional
development across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas.
Ongoing storms are moving into a region with relatively better
moisture, with dew points in the 60s to mid 50s and an axis of
sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) across eastern Texas into western
Louisiana. With the loss of daytime heating, storms may continue to
struggle, however, gusty winds and hail will remain possible given
the steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample shear. The 00z RAOB
from Shreveport, LA shows minimal low level inversion for most
unstable parcels, however, MLCIN remains present below 700 mb.
A similar thermodynamic profile is noted further north from Little
Rock, AR, with strong MLCIN below 700 mb and dry mid-levels.
Mid-level cooling aloft is just now spreading eastward across the
Red River in southern Oklahoma/Texas which may aid in more organized
development. This area into western Arkansas will be the most likely
region of additional development over the next couple of hours.
Should more robust supercell development occur, the risk for large
damaging hail and damaging wind will be possible.
..Thornton/Darrow/Guyer.. 03/13/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TJV8Cb
Windy.com Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK |
CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ... | RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN |
---|
MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
O'Hare International Airport KORD
(Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK
(Arlington Heights North)
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
SPC Mar 13, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)