Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and
potentially a tornado, will be possible across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
...Central/Southern FL Peninsula...
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a
cold front extending southwestward from this low across far
southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A
relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead
of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are
currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and
moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream
airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low
70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is
currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were
sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer
warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest
destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher
pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is
anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts
southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening.
Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with
a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the
environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered
supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk
from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the
day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern
extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component
and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD
#0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach
appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado
risk this afternoon.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/10/2025
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