Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
across central California and along the Oregon Coast, but no severe
thunderstorms are expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid/upper cyclone is currently centered off the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia coast, with moderate southwesterly flow
aloft extending from the base of this low across much of the West
Coast. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving through
this southwesterly flow into central CA, with continued
northeastward progression across the Great Basin expected today.
Another shortwave trough is expected to follow quickly behind the
first, moving into central CA tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures
will accompany this second shortwave, supporting the potential for a
few lightning flashes as the frontal band moves ashore. Cooler
temperatures aloft and increased forcing for ascent ahead of a third
shortwave trough could also support isolated lightning flashes early
tomorrow morning along the OR Coast.
Farther east, upper ridging is expected to amplify as it shifts
eastward across the Plains. At the same time, a fast-moving,
low-amplitude shortwave trough will progress through southern
Ontario and the Northeast. Additional southward progress of the cold
front that currently extends from the Mid-Atlantic, TN Valley,
Mid-South, and TX will be limited, with the portion of this front
over TX potentially returning northward as a warm front Wednesday
morning. Warm mid-level temperatures and associated poor lapse rates
will limit buoyancy along this boundary, precluding any thunderstorm
potential.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/04/2025
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