Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and
tonight.
...Synopsis...
At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected
across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight
amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as
low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over
the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also
expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland
moisture transport across northern CA.
At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure
over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move
through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because
of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS
outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and
limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below
10%.
Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West
could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates
suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low.
..Lyons.. 02/03/2025
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