Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are very low Friday.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to favor appreciable
moistening/destabilization through 01/12z as a dominant upper trough
settles south across the Great Lakes/OH Valley region. This feature
will not prove favorable for Gulf moisture to advance inland as
west-northwesterly flow should prevail through the period.
Farther west across southern CA, a notable upper low is forecast to
dig southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, as a strong 500mb
speed max translates toward the northern Baja Peninsula. While
profiles will cool, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, scant
moisture should be noted with this system across inland southern CA.
Forecast soundings suggest the most-buoyant parcels will struggle to
exhibit enough instability to warrant any meaningful risk for deep
convection capable of generating lightning. For these reasons
thunderstorms will not be forecast today.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/28/2025
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