Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms appear
unlikely.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude, positive-tile wave will continue eastward across
the Midwest and OH Valley today, providing ascent with cooling
aloft. A weak surface low will move from IL toward OH, with a cold
front trailing southwestward toward the lower OH Valley. A warm
front will remain roughly across northern IN and OH through the day.
Limited moisture exists ahead of this front, with dewpoints in the
40s to near 50 F. Even with heating, lapse rates are not
particularly steep, and as such, instability will remain quite
limited. However, a few thunderstorms are expected around or just
after peak heating, from IN and OH near the low southwestward across
the OH Valley near the cold front. A few fast-moving cells will be
possible, and locally gusty winds cannot be ruled out.
..Jewell.. 02/26/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025/
...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the mid
MO Valley to the Midwest and OH Valley. A corresponding weak surface
low will translate eastward across northern IL/IN/OH and vicinity,
with an attendant cold front moving southeastward across parts of
the Midwest/OH Valley. Low-level moisture return ahead of the front
will remain quite limited, with generally 40s to low 50s surface
dewpoints present by this afternoon. Cooling mid-level temperatures
associated with the approaching shortwave trough should encourage a
narrow corridor of weak instability to develop along and ahead of
the front, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon/early evening from the
MO Bootheel northeastward into southern IN. While deep-layer shear
will be sufficient to conditionally favor updraft organization,
current expectations are for the severe wind/hail threat to remain
low (less than 5%) due to the overall marginal thermodynamic
environment.
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