Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND
WA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and
into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening.
Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated
strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into
southeast Washington.
...South FL...
Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over
the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm
off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track
east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late
afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient
for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging
wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover
and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level
lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much
intensity.
...WA/OR...
The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the
coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move
inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by
late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a
semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will
result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures
aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid
level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust
thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through
mid-evening.
..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025
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